STIMULATE ME!

Analyzing the results of the 2009 stimulus.

Mr. Romney continues to call this "the failed stimulus".

Is he correct?  Let's check the evidence...



Here is a list of top-rated studies (including which method was used and a quote from each summary)

As you will see, 6 of the 9 said it worked, 

one said it worked but was too small, 

and two said it didn't work.
(one of the 'failed' had results that showed it was due to it's being too small).
 

Also notable, the CBO, which is the "official"result, says it worked.

So the claim that the stimulus "failed" in contradicted by the facts, as 7 of 9 top studies say otherwise.




worked (econometric): 
 Feyrer and Sacerdote.
" The stimulus had a positive, statistically significant effect on employment. "

Chodorow-Reich, Feiveson, Liscow,  and Woolston.
"The state fiscal aid portion of the stimulus, which specifically increased federal Medicaid matching funds, had significant positive effects on employment. The additional matching funds increased employment by 3.5 job-years per $100,000 spent, and the multiplier for the funds is around 2."

Wilson
"The stimulus created 2 million jobs in its first year, and 3.2 million by March 2011."
 
It worked (modeling):
Congressional Budget Office.
"Through the first quarter of 2011, the stimulus created between 1.6 million and 4.6 million jobs, increased real GDP by between 1.1 and 3.1 percent, and reduced unemployment by between 0.6 and 1.8 percentage points."

Council of Economic Advisors.
"The stimulus created or saved 2.7 million to 3.7 million jobs by the third quarter of 2010."

Zandi and Blinder.
"The stimulus raised real GDP in 2010 by 3.4 percent, reduced unemployment by 1.5 percentage points, and created almost 2.7 million jobs." It worked a little bit (modeling):

Oh and Reis.
"Both tax transfers and government purchases have very mild positive effects on growth."

It didn’t work (econometric):
Conley and Dupor.       
"The stimulus did not have a statistically significant effect on employment."
                   
Taylor. 
"The tax transfer provisions of the stimulus package, and previous stimulus packages in the 2000s, did not lead to a significant increase in consumption, and the spending provisions, notably including aid to state and local governments, did not lead to a noticeable increase in government purchases."                                          

Now here's a chart of three companies that also agree that the stimulus worked to stave off a deeper recession.


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All of these indicate, once again, that the claim that the stimulus "failed" is just plain wrong.  Not mentioned in any of this is the reason the stimulus was needed, which was the bad economy handed over to Obama. 

Doe Mr. Romney know about these studies? He ought to, he's running for President! 

Why then does he choose to lie about them? You can argue several things from these results, but "failed" is not one of them.

To be kind to Mr. Romney, we can assume that he simply chooses to  ignore evidence that doesn't support his pre-conceived opinion.

To be blunt, however, we would have to say he "lied".

Romney's attempt to blame President Obama for the spending in the stimulus package is disingenuous at best.